Explaining The Chase
NASCAR NEXTEL Cup series points are tallied after 26 races. The top ten and any drivers within 400 points of the leader at that point in the season are then locked in. Those drivers have their points manually set. The point leader automatically gets 5,050 points, the second place driver gets 5,045 and so on, five points per position.
As a result of this Chase for the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup format. The first 26 races feature a battle to get into the top ten in points in order to have a shot at the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup title.
The 2006 Candidates
We are now halfway to the cutoff. Thirteen races down and thirteen more races to go until the 2006 Chase begins.
Point leader Jimmie Johnson is having a great year. Even when he has a bad day he still finds a way to end up with a good finish. Jimmie currently has more than 500 points on eleventh place Denny Hamlin.
Matt Kenseth is also pretty solid since he is more than 400 points ahead of Hamlin.
The next group of drivers includes Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Tony Stewart and Kasey Kahne. These drivers are solidly in The Chase and just need to keep doing what they're doing.
Only 43 points separate seventh place Jeff Burton from Kyle Busch in tenth. Those drivers, along with Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon in eighth and ninth need to keep the heat turned up to solidify their place in The Chase.
On The Outside Looking In
The next three drivers in the standings are less than 100 points out of tenth. Rookie Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle and Casey Mears are in positions eleven through thirteen. These drivers are well within striking distance, but they need to avoid any bad finishes and start racing the guys immediately in front of them in points.
The last four drivers that still have a shot to make The Chase are Carl Edwards, Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer and Dale Jarrett. Jarrett finds himself 210 points behind tenth place Kyle Busch. With just thirteen races to go this is not an impossible deficit. Jarrett will need to make consistent, strong runs in order to crack the top ten. There is no more room for error if Jarrett will make the 2006 Chase.
No More Hope
For everyone else the remainder of the 2006 season is a building year for 2007. Now is the time to start making changes and taking risks to see what works and what doesn't.
This list of drivers includes Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Elliott Sadler and Bobby Labonte. None of these teams has had the kind of 2006 that they were hoping for. The best of these, Kurt Busch, is currently 18th in points 704 behind the leader and almost 300 points out of tenth.
It is not mathematically impossible for these drivers to make The Chase, but it is extremely unlikely.
