Back to The Monster Mile for Chase Race #2:
Dover International Speedway is a track where you either hit the setup or you don't. It is very difficult to make effective changes during the race if you're not already pretty close to perfect. This leads to drivers winning here in bunches as they take their successful June setup and win again in September. Tony Stewart swept both races in 2000, Jimmie Johnson in 2002 and Ryan Newman in 2003. Greg Biffle won in June, can he complete the sweep and take over the point lead?
The Track:
Dover Downs is a high-banked one-mile concrete oval. The high-grip surface lets drivers really get aggressive and push the car, but at the expense of tire wear.
On a typical race day in Dover you'll see a number of different strategies play out. The race can be won by charging hard all day, by laying back and saving your tires for the end, or even by playing the fuel mileage game. You just never know what Dover will bring.
Race Distance:
400 laps = 400 miles
The Big Picture:
Last week seven of the chasers managed a top ten. Those seven just need to repeat that feat. The other three need to make an aggressive statement to get back in contention.
The current points top ten are: 1. Tony Stewart 5,230. 2. Greg Biffle 5,210. 3. Ryan Newman 5,190. 4. Rusty Wallace 5,190. 5. Matt Kenseth 5,180. 6. Jimmie Johnson 5,177. 7. Mark Martin 5,176. 8. Jeremy Mayfield 5,135. 9. Carl Edwards 5,121. 10. Kurt Busch 5,088.
Storylines:
After the temper flare-ups that we saw last week in New Hampshire you can be sure that we'll hear a lot about Robby Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch and Michael Waltrip. They handled their frustration with varying level of maturity.
The most interesting driver in The Chase this week is defending champion Kurt Busch. After last week's disasterous lap two crash can he rebound and still become the 2005 Champ? Statistically he can, but he'll need to motivate his team to nine straight strong runs.
Media Coverage:
TV: TNT Sunday, September 25th, 12:30 PM Eastern.
Radio: MRN and XM Satellite
Actual Race: 1:10 p.m. Eastern
Posted Awards:
$4,976,638
Last Year:
Last year Ryan Newman rebounded from his New Hampshire blown engine to take the win and start climbing back into The Chase for the NEXTEL Cup. Fellow Chasers Mark Martin and Kurt Busch both had strong runs that day as they finished second and fifth but Ryan was never seriously challenged and took the comfortable win.
Predictions:
Dover is a track that lends itself to sweeps. The same driver has won both the June and September races here in three of the last five years. (Tony Stewart 2000, Jimmie Johnson 2002, Ryan Newman 2003) I'll go with continuing that trend with a Greg Biffle victory.
For my backup pick this week I'm going back to the old guard. I think Mark Martin has a good shot at finding Victory Lane at Dover. He has four wins here and 23 top tens in 28 career starts. His team is clicking and ready to win.
