The ten drivers that will compete for the 2005 Chase for the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup are now locked in. These ten drivers will battle it out over the last ten races on the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup schedule to decide the title. Any one of these guys could become the 2005 NEXTEL Cup Champion. In order to win the title drivers will need to put together a consistent string of top ten finishes and avoid any bad luck along the way. Here are the contenders for the 2005 Chase for the NEXTEL Cup.
Tony Stewart has scored five wins and hasn't finished worse than eighth since the June race in Pocono. That is twelve consecutive races without a bad race. The Joe Gibbs Racing Home Depot Chevrolet is smoking fast these days and Stewart knows how to get the job done. Currently leading the points and on a hot streak Tony has to be considered the favorite to win the 2005 NEXTEL Cup Championship.
Greg Biffle has five wins on the 2005 season and has been a factor in many more races. Greg is the highest placed of the five Jack Roush Racing teams in the Chase for the NEXTEL Cup and he is clearly capable of winning it all. Biffle has wins at Dover and Texas already in 2005 and runs very well at the 1-2 mile cookie cutter tracks. The Chase for the Cup format favors his hard charging style.
2005 is "Rusty's Last Call" since he will be retiring after the end of this season. With fourteen top tens and only one finish worse than 27th all season long Rusty has been points racing since Daytona. Rusty will need to turn up the heat if he is going to win it all. After playing it safe all year can Rusty light a fire under his Penske South team, and himself, in order to sprint these last ten races to Homestead?
Jimmie Johnson had a strong start to the 2005 season and lead the points for a good bit of the year. However, his Hendrick Motorsports team has struggled for much of the second half and has posted only one single-digit finish since Chicagoland in July. The team is clearly capable of running away with this Championship Chase but they will need to reverse the slide that they are currently on and get back to Victory Lane before Talladega.
Kurt Busch is the only driver in the 2005 Chase for the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup who can claim to be an expert. As the defending 2004 NEXTEL Cup Champion Kurt got the job done last year over these exact same ten races. Last year his final ten races featured nine top ten finishes and one terrible 42nd place run in Atlanta. Consistent top tens and avoiding terrible misfortune are the keys to winning The Chase. Kurt did it last year and his Roush Racing team is ready to repeat.
Even though fellow oldtimer Rusty Wallace is also in The Chase, Mark Martin has to be considered the sentimental favorite. Mark leads all NASCAR drivers in second place points finishes and as he reaches the end of his career many fans would like to see him finally win a title. Mark has been shamelessly points racing all year long and got himself in The Chase. Now, like Rusty, the question is whether or not he can motivate his Roush Racing team to switch gears and race for the Championship.
Jeremy Mayfield has to be considered one of the long shots to win The Chase. While he certainly is talented and his team has shown brief flashes of brilliance there is no indication that his Ray Evernham Motorsports team is capable of putting together ten consecutive top ten finishes. So far in 2005 Mayfield has the fewest top tens and the fewest top five fives of all the drivers in The Chase.
2005 is Carl Edwards' first full NEXTEL Cup season and he has made the most of it by racing his way into The Chase. His Roush Racing team has the resources to put Carl in Victory Lane a couple more times this season but Carl's stats so far show that he has not been able to put together the long string of top finishes necessary to win The Chase. I believe Carl Edwards will win a NEXTEL Cup Championship, but probably not in 2005.
Matt Kenseth started off 2005 with a 42nd place finish in Daytona and it didn't get much better than that until June. Since the first Pocono race Matt has finished ten of the twelve races in the top eleven and only once finished worse than 18th. The 2003 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Champion has his Roush Racing team firing on all cylinders and has to be considered a real contender to win it all.
In 2005, Ryan Newman has a stunning average starting position of 6.8. Unfortunately his finishes have not been as good. He had a strong string of runs in May and June but three of his last six races have featured finishes of 30th or worse. Which Ryan Newman will show up for The Chase? If he races like he did in August he'll finish a disappointing tenth in the 2005 points. If he can put together ten races like he ran in May he could win it all.
