Now there is only one race remaining in the 2004 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup season. Who will win the championship? Five drivers mathematically still have a shot but fewer realistically are in. Who's going to win it all?
Leading the charge into Homestead by just 18 points Kurt can't stroke his way to this title. A second place finish or better guarantees him the title (third if he leads a lap) but anything less opens the door for Jimmie and Jeff.
Four wins in the last five races have Jimmie knocking on the door of his first Championship. Clearly this team is on fire and has the tools to finish the job in Homestead. It's really a one-race crapshoot at this point among the top three drivers.
If not for the new Chase format Jeff Gordon would have a nice 52 point lead over Jimmie Johnson. Instead he now trails Kurt Busch by 21 markers. He knows what he needs to do to win and how to do it. Again, any of these top three guys can do it by just catching a good break or avoiding a bad one.
Never a fan of Darlington, Junior found a way to scatch out an 11th place finish to limit his points damage to 72 points out. Realistically though, what are the odds of all three guys in front of him having a bad day in Homestead? Maybe in 2005 Dale can get a better run at The Chase.
Still the sentimental favorite 2004 is not to be his year. The big differences? After leading late at Lowes Motor Speedway Mark gets caught up in somebody else's wreck with 22 to go relegating him to a 13th place finish instead of a solid top 5. Or, tire problem in Kansas costs him an extra pit stop and turns his top ten car into a 20th place finish. This team was fast enough to win it all this year but just couldn't catch a break.
Now mathematically eliminated, Tony is pretty well established in 6th for the season. His best bet in 2004? Go out with a win in Homestead, a track he has mastered in the past.
Ryan Newman has a distant shot at passing Stewart for 6th but realistically will most likely finish right here in 7th. A better finish than 80 or other guys, but this team had more potential than this.
2003 Champ Kenseth couldn't avoid the demons. Matt just never got it going during the chase. Without The Chase Matt would be ninth, now he's tied with Elliott Sadler for 8th so he could well end up exactly where he would have been anyway.
In a dead heat with Kenseth for the 8th spot you can guarantee that these two will be keeping an eye on each other during Sunday's race. There's a good bit of money difference between 8th and 9th to make it worth racing for.
This team peaked in Richmond to get Mayfield into The Chase but just hasn't been able to get anything going since then. 8th is still possible but the way they've been racing lately the best thing you can say about Mayfield's chances are that it's not possible for him to lose any more positions.
