Easter Break Predicts Season

Interesting statistics from NASCAR today. Did you know that early season driver performance is a fairly accurate predictor of the final season standings? As the NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series pauses for the Easter holiday, Jimmie Johnson leads the point standings. He also has one win, which means he’s following a recent trend.

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DeWALT Power Tools Ford) led the standings at this stage of the 2003 season and went on to win the series championship. So did the 2004 series champion, Kurt Busch (No. 97 IRWIN Industrial Tools/Sharpie Ford). Like Johnson, Busch and Kenseth each had one win at the Easter holiday, but here’s another interesting fact: Over the last 10 seasons, Kenseth and Busch are the only drivers who led the standings at Easter, then went on to clinch a title.

The 2002 series champion, Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Chevrolet), ranked the lowest in the standings at that season’s Easter holiday. Stewart had one win, but was in 12th place in the points. During the past 10 seasons, no other champion has been out of the top five in points going into the Easter break. Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet) had the most wins – three – at this point during his 1995 championship season. Only Terry Labonte and Dale Jarrett (No. 88 UPS Ford) were winless at this point in their title seasons of 1996 and 1999, respectively.